With the “soybean dollar” liquidations were brought forward for December, to get closer to the goals of the fourth quarter of 2022, at the cost of emptying the silobags and, therefore, sacrificing the fulfillment of the goals of this first quarter. While in the first two months of 2022 the liquidation of CIARACEC exports reached 4.94 billion current dollars, in the same period of 2023 the income of foreign currency through this channel shrank to 1.57 billion, a decrease of almost 3 .4 billion dollars, attributable to the seasonal change that triggered the “soybean dollar”
Even if Argentina does not have to comply to the letter of what was initially committed in terms of reserve accumulation, the expectations of economic agents will continue to be affected by the fragility of the Central Bank’s balance sheet, with shrinking external assets and foreign currency liabilities. premises that are expanding at full speed
The “short blanket” will continue to restrict authorizations to import and, therefore, affecting the level of activity due to the lack of supplies and parts. Towards the end of 2022 we had estimated that non-energy imports in 2023 could be falling by 10% year-on-year, and all the developments that have occurred in the last two months are not enough to change this scenario, which obviously entails a marked adjustment in the level of activity
In the first two months of the year, after four title tenders, the Treasury has achieved an average roll over rate of 153%, generating an additional debt of ARS 403,352 million. The second quarter concentrates 43% of the total maturities of the year, and the same is expected for the third quarter. Likewise, the Treasury is validating increasingly higher rates for the debt in pesos in order to guarantee renewal, with a TEA of 118.3% for the 96-day LEDES
The agreement with the IMF only limits the “transitory advances” from the Central Bank to the Treasury, but there are no restrictions on intervention in the secondary debt market for pesos. At the time, this inconsistency was warned and the figures for the last 12 months confirm it: only 7 pesos out of every 100 of the BCRA’s gross issuance were explained by direct transfers to the Treasury (issuance of fiscal origin itself).
A significant difference between 2022 and 2023 is that last year the net flow of operations with the IMF was positive for Argentina for almost 5.2 billion dollars, while this year that account is negative for the country for almost 3 ,2 billion. In the design of the Extended Facilities Program, it is foreseen that, from 2023 onwards, Argentina will have to gradually cancel the debt contracted with the agency