Climate change has very serious consequences on nature and therefore on food production. Argentina is going through a historical drought and it is reflected in the macroeconomics and the distribution of agricultural income.
To date, it is estimated that the production of the main summer crops will shrink by at least 35%-45% and that the total value of the 7 main crops of the country (including both summer and winter grains), at current market prices and those projected for the coming months, will be decreasing by a figure close to USD 20.9 billion: a setback equivalent to 3.3 points of the country’s Gross Domestic Product.
The net generation of foreign currency associated with the export of grains and/or their derivatives will also suffer a strong adjustment. If the commercial cycle of the main crops is taken (April 2023 to March 2024) an adjustment of $18.1 billion and the calendar year is considered, the drop would be $17.9 billion .
These estimates that grain stocks at the end of the cycle are reduced in part compared to those at the beginning and that soybean meal stabilizes at an export value close to USD 500/ton.
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In the last available survey of the last March 23 of the crop condition of the Grain Exchange of Buenos Aires, it was determined that 73% of soy implanted was in cultured condition average / bad yeahl 66% in hydric condition regular / drought. In the case of corn, the 58% of the crops were in a condition average / bad and the 56% in a regular/drought water condition.
In the cereal, differences were observed between early and late maize, the latter much better, while both first class soybean and second class soybean appear similarly affected in the survey: 27.6% vs. 26.9% in normal/good culture condition, respectively.