On the day of the date, a dollar of $300 has been announced for the exports of products of the soybean complex (grain and its industrial derivatives), in all the operations that are carried out between April 8 and May 31 of 2023. The new value that would be recognized for the currency represents an increase of 42% compared to the official price in force in the first days of April.

Also read: Sergio Massa presented the Export Increase Program

The measure will have different implications, both macroeconomic and microeconomic. The focus of the analysis is placed on its micro effects, in particular, on how the economic results of agricultural establishments may be modified in the 2022/23 campaign with respect to the situation prevailing before the measure. The economic results will be negative in many agricultural establishments during the 2022/23 campaign due to the effect of the drought, with highly affected areas in which crops will be completely or almost completely lost, and less affected areas, in which yields will be well a little closer they will still be below the average and normal productivity of the soils. For this reason, two reference agricultural production models were built, one designed to capture particularities of the “core zone” (Pampean region) and the other of the great “extra-Pampean region” (distinctive and differential characteristics of each of the regions in terms of land productivity, distance to port, input technology, etc.), and their economic results were evaluated (from the indicator of net margin per hectare), taking into account:

  • Different scenarios of crop yields (lower than normal, given the drought suffered)
  • Two possible situations in relation to the land tenure regime (producer owner and producer tenant)
  • An establishment of 1,000 hectares, which assigned 50% of the surface to soybeans and the other 50% to corn;
  • A marketing assumption in which all production is sold during the period March-August 2023 (at FAS prices that arise from FOB prices and the official exchange rate, its current and projected values).

Look at the full report by Juan Manuel Garzón and Franco Artuss: Considerations about the microeconomic effects of the Soy Dollar Program 3