Although have given the “go-ahead” to the measures taken by the National Government Regarding tax changes and the agricultural dollar to increase the level of Central Bank reserves, the International Monetary Fund worsened its forecast for Argentina’s economic progress. Thus, the entity estimated that the Argentine economy will fall this year by 2.5%but during the next one it will recover and grow a 2.8%. The forecast for this year reflects a sharp reduction compared to the one released last April by the agency, when it projected that the Argentine GDP would grow 0.2% in 2023.
However, in its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF improved its estimates in relation to 2024, since in April it had marked a slight growth of 0.2%. Furthermore, he predicted that inflation could reach 120% this year, against the 88% he had estimated in April.
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On a global level, inflation “It is decreasing in most countries but it is still high, and there are differences from one country to another and in the way it is measured.” In this regard, he considered that world inflation will decrease from 8.7% registered in 2022 to 6.8% in 2023, While for 2024 would be located in 5.2% per year.
He also said that global growth “is slowing down, with changes in its composition. The average annual global growth is projected to decrease from 3.5% in 2022 to 3% in 2023 and 2024.” “The level is also below the historical average across broad income groups, in terms of both global GDP and GDP per capita. Advanced economies remain the main cause of declining growth between 2022 and 2023,” explained the agency.
For emerging and developing economies, he estimated that growth will reach 4% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024; For example, he projected that in Latin America and the Caribbean, GDP will fall from 3.9% in 2022 to 1.9% in 2023, and from 2.2% in 2024.
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“The decline between 2022 and 2023 is due to the recent moderation of the rapid growth registered in 2022 due to the reopening after the pandemic, as well as the decrease in the prices of raw materials; The upward revision for 2023 is a consequence of stronger-than-expected growth in Brazil, driven by increased agricultural production in the first quarter of 2023, which has had a positive impact on service sector activity,” pointed out.
For Brazil, Argentina’s main trading partner, a GDP increase of 2.1% is expected this year, driven by agricultural production.