The foreign exchange settlement of the agro-export companies for external sales of soy and its derivatives already exceeded US$1,000 million in the first six days of validity of the Export Increase Program, with which a third of the US$3,000 million committed by the sector was reached.
The Mediterranean Foundation explained that Decree 787/2022 reestablishes the Export Increase Program for the soybean complex (Dollar Soja II), once again offering a higher exchange rate to those who enter the program ($230 until the end of the year). The incentive offered is important, 38% more will be paid per dollar exported than what was being paid at the end of November ($167), therefore it is to be expected that the sales of soybean stocks will accelerate, as happened in the first edition.
Therefore, if the program succeeds in making sales reach the end of the year with a pattern similar to the historical normal, the flow of sales could be between 3.5 and 5.3 million tons (according to the latest 3 or 10 campaigns), and if sales were made in December that are usually made in January, the flow could be between 5.3 and 7.0 million tons. For reference, the government expects the program to generate USD 3 billion which, at export prices, is equivalent to some 5.1 million tons sold, which seems feasible to achieve.
In this sense, they highlighted that while the government tries to accelerate the sale of stocks, the productive flows of 2023 seem increasingly threatened. The development of the summer crops of the 22/23 cycle (corn, soybean) continues to be strongly challenged by the continuity of a very adverse climate, with the probability of having a poor campaign in terms of volumes (due to delay in sowing) growing day by day , lack of rain on time and the very probable lower investment in technology and inputs). For the purposes of planning macro 2023, three productive scenarios are built, one that could be considered optimistic (and unlikely), another moderate (more realistic than what has happened so far) and a third more pessimistic (assuming the continuity of the drought for several more weeks) but that has a probability of occurrence.