The Ministry of Economy is putting together the draft budget 2024 to send to Congress in September. Up to now it seems that the Executive Branch anticipates a drop in national economic activity due to the drought effect at the end of the year, although next year there would be a rebound and four times more withholdings would be collected than this year. The value would be, for the moment, 106% higher.

“It is estimated that the collection corresponding to the National Administration will be around 106% higher than in 2023 and will show an increase of 0.18 percentage points in terms of GDP”

Statement from the Palace of Finance.

“The recovery of all components of aggregate demand is expected; in particular, private consumption and investmentmaintaining a growth path in 2025-2026, while the imported volume will also continue to advance, driven by economic growth”

Economy message that accompanied the project.

In turn, the Ministry reiterated that, in the current framework, “the GDP is projected to recover by 2024, after the drop in the level of activity in 2023 (assumed). Likewise, GDP growth is expected to continue during the period 2025-2026″. “In 2024, GDP growth will be driven by the rebound in the Agricultural sector, mainly due to the expected recovery in the soybean and corn harvests. On the demand side, the recovery of all its components is expected, highlighting the growth of investment”.

The data up to the moment of the published document also assume that “Regarding foreign trade, for the exported quantities of goods and services an increase is projected from the expected recovery in the gross harvest, maintaining a growth path in 2025-2026while the imported volume will also continue to advancedriven by economic growth, but with a GDP elasticity progressively decreasing.

Although some relevant data of the macroeconomic sector are not yet defined, the governmental economic sector estimates management guidelines, such as the inflationthe price of dollar expected and others such as the volume of exports and imports projected for the coming year. In turn, this projection would be based on the current context with the IMF (International Monetary Fund).

Although there is still a lack of data and a final final project, up to now they believe, in general terms, that “the collection of national taxes and contributions to social security in the year 2024 is estimated to double that projected for the year 2023, reducing 0.15 points GDP compared to the previous year. The tax burden would go from 22.91% of GDP in the year 2023 to 22.76% in the year 2024. This change in the total tax pressure responds to the net effect of changes in the macroeconomic context and of tax policy and administration measures”.